TORONTO, ON–Sapling Financial Consultants released its October 2025 Green Shoots M&A Index for the U.S and Canada, offering a forward-looking view of North American M&A trends. The latest data signals diverging trajectories between the two markets, with U.S. deal making contracting while Canada shows moderate growth. The data suggests a broader risk-off environment in the U.S. as buyers and financiers wait for valuations and interest rates to stabilize, while Canada maintains independent momentum.
In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index registered a score of 34 out of 100, earning a ‘Wilt’ status, signaling a weaker deals market, a 3.7% decrease compared to September’s index. The U.S. recorded 1,433 M&A deals in September 2025, with the Sapling model forecasting 1,390 deals in October 2025.
In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index landed at ‘Sprout’ with a predictive value of 49 out of 100, indicating a moderate increase in deal activity, a 6.6% rise compared to September’s index. Canada recorded 229 M&A deals in September 2025, with Sapling’s model forecasting 244 deals in October 2025.
“Our October index shows a mixed picture, as the U.S. experiences a faster-than-normal decline in deal activity while Canada’s M&A market continues to strengthen,” said Rob Hong, co-founder & CEO of Sapling Financial Consultants. “Despite these contrasts, cross-border M&A between the U.S. and Canada remains active, but trade tensions and tariffs have introduced new risks, especially in energy, automotive and manufacturing sectors. Strategic and private equity buyers continue to pursue cross-border deals in infrastructure, energy and mid-market technology to manage tariffs, secure supply chains and adapt to evolving trade rules.”
Sapling’s U.S. Green Shoots M&A Index
Key drivers in U.S. M&A activity are the surge in AI-driven technology acquisitions, as tech firms and private equity buyers target platforms that enhance automation, data analytics and digital infrastructure. Consumer products, telecommunications, infrastructure and manufacturing are also seeing increased activity, fueled by brand consolidation, 5G expansion and renewed interest in semiconductors and supply chain resilience.
Sapling’s Canada Green Shoots M&A Index
Key drivers in Canada’s M&A activity are large-scale transactions in the infrastructure and energy sectors, which continue to fuel overall deal value as institutional and strategic investors target long-term assets. In the technology space, tech firms are increasingly engaging in going-private transactions and strategic exits, particularly in mid-market deals, which contributes to steady momentum in deal flow.
The Green Shoots M&A Index combines historical deal data with macroeconomic and market indicators to forecast activity. Canada’s index incorporates U.S. trends, reflecting the strong correlation between North American markets and providing early signals of domestic M&A momentum.
Click here to download the Green Shoots M&A Index
Founded in 2015 by Rob Hong and Andreea Lupascu in Toronto, Sapling Financial Consultants is a financial modelling, due diligence and data analytics firm that combines technological innovation with financial comprehension. In 2025, the Toronto-based boutique financial consulting firm opened its first U.S. satellite office in Atlanta, Georgia. Sapling was named one of Canada’s Top Growing Companies by The Globe and Mail’s Report on Business Magazine in 2024 and 2025, awarded a 2023 CanadianSME Small Business Awards for Best Professional Services and Ragan Communications Workplace Wellness Award – Learning & Development. Committed to excellence in their craft and empowering mid-sized businesses, the firm champions affordable, high-calibre financial and analytical solutions, providing the tools for sustained growth and strategic advantage in a dynamic market landscape.
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