Population growth, policy levers drive price appreciation, housing values reporting triple-digit gains over a 30-year period

TORONTO–Strong equity gains over the past 30 years have left few regretting the leap to home ownership, but obstacles are dimming the dream for future generations, as home-ownership rates decline nationally and in major markets, according to a report released today by REMAX Canada.

In its analysis of data and market conditions, the REMAX Housing Market Drivers Report found that, although each generation has faced significant economic challenges, the current cohort of property purchasers is facing among the most formidable headwinds yet. To date, each generation has bounced back — and fared exceptionally well — as history has shown that major Canadian centres rebound sharply once economic stability returns to the market. Although the journey remains complex and affordability is a significant barrier, reason for optimism remains given the real estate cycle and practical solutions that offer potential to change the current trajectory for young buyers and ease the path to home ownership — providing governments and the private sector act in lockstep.

REMAX examined nine major Canadian urban centres over a 30-year period and found population growth, coupled with policy levers and market events, have long underpinned the Canadian housing market, creating periods of extended growth and contractions in the country’s largest cities. Halifax Regional Municipality reported the greatest increase in price percentage growth, rising 460 per cent between 1994 and 2024 for a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.91 per cent. The Greater Toronto Area was a close second with a percentage increase of 436.2 per cent and a CAGR of 5.76 per cent, while Saskatoon rounded out the top three, with a percentage increase of 377 per cent and a compounded annual rate of return of 5.35 per cent.

Residential Average Price Appreciation and Compounded Annual Rate of Return (CAGR) in Major Canadian Markets
1994 – 2024
Market	1994	2004	D/D	Annual	2014	D/D	Annual	2024	D/D	Annual	30-year	CAGR
			Increase	Average		Increase	Average		Increase	Average	Performance
Greater Vancouver	$303,535	$377,124	24.2 %	2.19 %	$813,741	115.8 %	7.99 %	$1,291,921	58.8 %	4.73 %	325.6 %	4.95
Calgary	$136,493	$227,031	66.3 %	5.22 %	$481,991	112.3 %	7.82 %	$607,040	25.9 %	2.33 %	344.7 %	5.1
Edmonton	$112,927	$179,610	59.0 %	4.75 %	$372,787	107.6 %	7.58 %	$424,505	13.9 %	1.31 %	275.9 %	4.51
Saskatoon	$90,583	$129,492	60.7 %	4.86 %	$334,493	158.3 %	9.95 %	$384,611	15.0 %	1.41 %	377.3 %	5.35
Winnipeg	$84,812	$121,925	43.8 %	3.70 %	$273,363	124.2 %	8.41 %	$390,730	42.9 %	3.64 %	360.7 %	5.22
Greater Toronto	$208,921	$315,231	50.9 %	4.20 %	$569,404	80.6 %	6.09 %	$1,120,250	96.7 %	7.00 %	436.2 %	5.76
Ottawa	$147,032	$238,152	62.0 %	4.94 %	$388,369	63.1 %	5.01 %	$690,888	77.9 %	5.93 %	369.9 %	5.29
Halifax	$103,481	$175,132	69.2 %	5.40 %	$276,323	57.8 %	4.67 %	$579,521	109.7 %	7.69 %	460.0 %	5.91
Newfoundland-Labrador	$92,799	$130,282	40.4 %	3.45 %	$284,172	118.1 %	8.11 %	$319,619	12.5 %	1.18 %	244.4 %	4.21
Source: REMAX Canada, Canadian Real Estate Association (and various boards), Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), and Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

“The findings confirm that home ownership continues to be the greatest driver of wealth, especially at the middle-class level,” says Don Kottick, President, REMAX Canada. “Each generation of Canadian homeowners — from Baby Boomers to Gen Z — has faced its challenges and obstacles. Today’s trade barriers, high interest rates and stringent lending policies may be overwhelming, but this too shall pass. Historically, dynamics evolve from recovery to expansion, peak to contraction, trough to recovery. Cyclically, the trough is short and gives way to renewed growth. In retrospect, buyers may look back and realize that this period represented the best opportunity in recent years to get into the market at a reduced price point.”

Affordability, stagnant incomes, supply challenges and demographic shifts constraining young buyers

At present, REMAX brokers reported balanced/moderating conditions in most markets, with affordability being an ongoing issue, despite more favourable conditions including rising inventory levels. Average price escalation continues to outpace wage growth, making it exceedingly difficult for first-time buyers across all regions to enter the market. Many would-be purchasers are challenged by the mortgage stress test, debt burdens, downpayment requirements and carrying costs. Chronic supply shortages at lower price points are driving values higher, while the cancellation of new construction projects have set the stage for tight market conditions in the future. A notable trend in the market includes aging empty-nesters and retirees now competing with first-time buyers for smaller homes, particularly bungalows, in many areas of the country. This competition makes winning a bid even harder for first-timers who are up against better-positioned buyers.

Accelerated population growth outpaces housing supply during pandemic years

A Global Economic Housing Note prepared by Scotiabank in May 2021 identified a chronic insufficiency in Canada’s housing supply, which has led to the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country. Yet Canada led the G7 countries in terms of population growth during the pandemic years — rising 2.7 per cent — and crossing the 40 million threshold in June of 2023.

“Immigration and in-migration have been significant housing market drivers over the 30-year period and nowhere was this more evident than in Calgary and Edmonton, where population increased by almost 121 per cent and just under 87 per cent, respectively,” says Kottick. “While the trend was accelerated by the pandemic, the province’s Alberta is Calling advertising campaign drove the engine, highlighting low housing values and financial incentives for skilled workers, ultimately drawing greater investment and job opportunities.”

Population Growth by Major Canadian CMA
1994 -2024
	1994	2004	2014	2024	% Increase (1994/2024)
Vancouver	1,788,678	2,135,802	2,513,078	3,108,941	73.8 %
Calgary	805,810	1,053,101	1,386,068	1,778,881	120.8 %
Edmonton	873,222	1,018,099	1,311,944	1,631,614	86.8 %
Saskatoon	220,002	238,334	294,067	367,336	67.0 %
Winnipeg	676,911	712,664	780,372	941,641	39.1 %
Toronto	4,226,582	5,166,661	5,996,941	7,106,379	68.1 %
Ottawa-Gatineau (ON)	760,460	925,661	1,045,963	1,287,592	69.3 %
Halifax	345,373	403,553	430,249	530,167	53.5 %
St. John’s	177,691	183,401	210,515	239,316	34.7 %
S ource: Archived-Statistics Canada Estimates of population by sex and age group, census division, and census metropolitan areas ,
(2001 boundaries), Statistics Canada Population Estimates July 1 by Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration
(2021 boundaries).

Expanding existing supply in Canadian housing markets

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Fall Supply Report noted that ongoing construction slowdowns in select Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) pose risks to future housing supply, workforce retention and affordability. Overall housing starts in seven key CMAs were slightly off units reported in the first half of 2024, while gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Ottawa were offset by declines in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax. The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) recently reported new home sales in the GTA were at lows not seen in decades, with July 2025 sales being the worst on record.

“Supply gaps are worsening, and the pace of new construction does not bode well for the future of Canada’s housing markets,” says Kottick. “The chronic undersupply will lock a growing number of potential buyers out of the housing market for longer and perpetuate the affordability crisis as pressure on pricing will remain a near certainty as long as demand outpaces supply. It is possible and necessary to implement measures that protect the ability of young buyers to achieve home ownership.”

The timing of the federal government’s launch of a new central agency — Build Canada Homes — to initially oversee affordable housing programs in six communities, including Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa, Longueuil and Dartmouth, could not come fast enough. Approximately $13 billion is earmarked for the program, which will fund construction of 4,000 modular homes on public lands beginning in 2026, with the potential to scale up to 45,000.

Policy levers – taxation, interest rates and stress test

Over the 30-year span, government levers have had both a positive and negative impact on the country’s housing market. A Bank of Canada hike of several basis points within a short period in 1994 stifled housing market recovery while a relaxation in lending policies between 2006 and 2008 culminated in a record year for real estate activity in 2007. Since then, municipal government intervention has hampered activity, from BC’s Foreign Buyer Tax in 2016, the Empty Homes Tax in 2017 and the Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act introduced in 2023 to Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan, including the Non-Resident Speculation Tax of 2017, Toronto’s Vacant Home Tax of 2023, and the Toronto Municipal Non-Resident Speculation Tax effective in 2025. Ottawa introduced its Vacant Unit Tax in 2023, while Nova Scotia added a Non-Resident Deed Transfer Tax of five per cent in 2022. The federal foreign buyer prohibition was extended until 2027.

Canada-wide mortgage stress tests were introduced for insured mortgages in 2016, followed by a more-prohibitive test extended to uninsured mortgages by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) in 2018. The move served to cool demand and borrowing capacity well after the 2016-2017 run up, and the market was struggling at the time.

Few would argue that the many policy levers in recent years were designed as mechanisms of constraint to various ends. Recently, policy changes have begun to address some barriers to home ownership, but they remain far from adequate to remedy the multitude of challenges impacting Canada’s real estate landscape and its many stakeholders.

Canadians believe in home ownership

Canada has placed among the top countries for home ownership for decades, and although the country’s position has softened in recent years, Canada still boasts a home-ownership rate of 66 per cent, according to Statistics Canada’s 2021 Census. Certain CMAs continue to outperform the national home-ownership average, including Calgary (70.5 per cent), St. John’s (69.4 per cent), Edmonton (68.7 per cent) and Saskatoon (68.7 per cent).

“Given the importance of home ownership, governments should be working to assist would-be homebuyers in the quest to realize the dream,” says Kottick. “The strategy must be multifaceted, integrated, and engage all levels of government in lockstep with private sector partnerships and broader social strategies.”

Moving the needle: Reforms to improve affordability and ease the path to home ownership

REMAX brokers across Canada floated some of the following ideas:

• Remove the additional two per cent requirement to qualify on the mortgage stress test.
• Allow potential homebuyers to withdraw more than the allotted amount in the first-time Home Buyers’ Plan from their RRSPs and from their TFSAs.
• Extend amortization periods for first-time homebuyers.
• Remove Land Transfer Taxes on purchases under certain price points (to be determined by average price in each market).
• Remove GST and HST for all homebuyers on new housing product.
• Reduce or remove red tape, outdated zoning bylaws and restructure land-use policies, while speeding up the permit and approvals process.
• Incentivize the building of homes that meet the needs of today’s homebuyers, shifting focus to end users over investors.
• Policies and programs should prioritize first-time purchasers.
• Invest in and support innovations such as modular or prefab construction techniques that bring supply online faster and at a lower cost.
• Address supply of affordable homes as a percentage of available product or new construction.

“Affordability, population growth and supply shortages are the recurring themes shaping residential housing in Canada,” notes Kottick. “While each market exhibits local nuances — Vancouver’s looming condo shortage, Edmonton’s affordability and Halifax’s steep climb in values are just a few examples — the shared pressures unite all major regions. Governments and private-sector players share a great responsibility in shaping Canada’s real estate landscape, addressing the housing crisis and ensuring sustainable urban development.”

Major market overviews

Greater Vancouver

Market conditions can be characterized as balanced at present in the Greater Vancouver market, but demand for detached and townhome properties tends to outpace strata condominiums. A serious uptick in inventory levels over the past year, in large part due to economic uncertainties, has left buyers skittish and waiting on the sidelines for conditions to improve. Conversely, homeowners who have listed their homes for sale are waiting longer to sell, with listings lingering on the market. Incoming offers often include a 30-day condition on the sale of an existing property.

With the average home price hovering near $1.3 million in 2024, Greater Vancouver remains the country’s most expensive housing market — a title it has held since at least 1994. Since then, values have climbed more than 325 per cent, representing an annual compounded growth rate of 4.95 per cent. Much of the growth occurred between 2004 and 2014, when prices rose by almost eight per cent annually. More recent pressures — including the pandemic and its aftermath, rapid interest rate hikes, the Foreign Buyer Ban, B.C.’s Short-Term Rental Accommodations Act, and uncertainty tied to U.S. Tariffs — have further challenged affordability.

From a historical perspective, today’s interest rates are lower than the 30-year average, but the steep escalation in housing values has made ownership significantly harder to achieve. Even so, some seasoned buyers are taking advantage of reduced spreads to move up into larger homes or different neighbourhoods, prompting an upswing in move-up activity.

Despite some barriers to entry, today’s entry-level buyers are benefitting from the best selection in years, along with the advantage of ample time to make decisions. First-time buyers are skewing older, with most being between the ages of 35 and 45 years. The lion’s share of activity tends to fall into the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, and occasionally falling into the $700,000 to $750,000 price bracket. At this level, options are typically limited to strata product in Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley, although moving to outlying areas such as Chilliwack could result in freehold ownership.

While fear has diminished somewhat in recent months, navigating the market is the challenge moving forward. In a balanced market, it’s often best to sell first but have sights set on the future acquisition. If the decision is made to buy first, buyers are minimizing risk by ensuring a contingency clause is included regarding the sale of an existing property.

Inventory is unlikely to be absorbed until interest rates drop further. Rates remain the cornerstone of consumer confidence, and once they start to move downward, greater market activity is expected. In recent weeks, there has been greater chatter in the market regarding foreign buyers, with builders and developers seeking a lift of the current ban.

Supply shortages, while not an issue at present, are expected to be problematic down the road, unless scheduled construction projects move forward. In 2024 and 2025, condominium developments in Vancouver’s downtown core, west side and outlying areas were outright cancelled, forced into court-ordered sales or put on hold due to elevated interest rates and declining property values. Others shifted gears, with developers moving to rental accommodations as opposed to condominiums. While this solution appears to work at present, looking forward, it sets the stage for bidding wars due to shortages in 2028 and beyond.

Inventory, interest rates and price appreciation factor into the picture for the future. Ten years ago, a good income and adequate downpayment enabled entry into the market. Today, those are basic requirements complicated by the stress test and increased tax levels. Federal, provincial and municipal governments should be looking for ways to incentivize home ownership, whether it’s through a reduction in the provincial transfer tax, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), an increase in Land Transfer Tax rebates or by allowing first-time buyers to withdraw a higher amount from their RRSP tax-free through the Home Buyers’ Plan or First Home Savings Account (FHSA). As for the road ahead, buyers and sellers will need to navigate the market with the knowledge of current variables and those likely to impact conditions in the near future, since shifting conditions can quickly drive market transition.

Edmonton

Following an extended period of robust home-buying activity, Edmonton’s residential housing market has moderated. Driven by immigration and in-migration, the city’s population grew by almost nine per cent between 2022 and 2024, bringing the total number of residents in the Edmonton CMA to more than 1.6 million and sparking unprecedented demand for housing.

More balanced market conditions have emerged in Edmonton this year, with the fall market expected to slightly favour the seller. There are, however, some exceptions to the rule, including strong activity for condominiums priced under $200,000, townhomes at the $300,000 price point, single-detached homes between $400,000 and $600,000, and the luxury segment ranging from $1 million to $1.5 million.

Multiple offers are still occurring, although they tend to be limited to the $400,000 to $600,000 price point. Greater confidence in the overall market has created some momentum, but the consensus is that the urgency that characterized the pandemic years has subsided. Infill homes that are in various stages of construction at the top end are being scooped up, with buyers worried that tariffs and trade shortages will raise the cost of new builds opting for product that is almost completed.

While the Edmonton CMA had a home-ownership rate of 68.7 per cent according to the 2021 Statistics Canada Census, the rate is down from the peak level of 70.6 per cent reported in 2011. Despite the decline, the market is still seeing younger buyers who are willing to invest a little sweat equity to realize home ownership. Many are seeking wartime and mid-century modern bungalows in premium amenity-rich neighbourhoods where they can renovate to their tastes and include a basement suite for additional income. Some buyers are moving to smaller surrounding communities north of St. Albert’s, where housing values are lower, such as Fort Saskatchewan and Morinville — areas where freehold properties can be had for $250,000. Others are moving further afield, purchasing recreational homes on 80 to 100 acres, or even going off-grid.

Inventory levels are rising, and an adequate supply of homes is available at every price point. Edmonton is committed to building “missing middle” housing before it’s missing, which has helped keep price appreciation stable in the city.

Edmonton has traditionally been considered one of those boom/bust markets, but the influx of new residents, combined with the recent campaign to attract business to the province, has led to the maturation of the city. Since 1994, population has risen by close to 87 per cent, placing Edmonton second among the fastest-growing cities of the nine markets examined in the REMAX report. With its combination of affordability, economic opportunity, cultural vibrancy and abundant green space, Edmonton offers buyers the ability to put down roots without the burden of being house-rich and cash-poor. It does so, while offering a bustling urban centre with an abundance of amenities that rival many major markets — great shops and restaurants, unique and trendy neighbourhoods, extensive job prospects, an international airport and more. Solid fundamentals, including the economic diversity of the city and its younger overall population, have it well-positioned for further expansion. For many, the move to Edmonton represents an investment in both quality of life and the future.

Calgary

While in-migration, immigration and employment opportunities have accelerated overall population growth in the city between 1994 and 2024, a 16-per-cent upswing in new residents during the pandemic propelled homes sales and values to new heights. That, in combination with a recovery of the oil and gas sector and the government’s 2022 Alberta is Calling ad campaign, which offered financial incentives for eligible skilled trade workers relocating to the province, created a vibrant home-buying market, particularly in Calgary.

Housing market conditions in the city have since moderated, in large part due to a slowdown in out-of-province buyers, higher average prices, stagnant interest rates and a lack of substantial government incentives for first-time homebuyers. Broader economic headwinds such as U.S. tariffs, job concerns and overall uncertainty, have contributed to the more subdued marketplace. Despite these challenges, certain segments continue to experience strength. Entry-level and move-up buyers remain active in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range, stimulating sales of lower-end townhomes, two-storey starter homes and duplexes.

Retiring Baby Boomers and younger buyers are looking to make their moves, with both seeking single-storey bungalow properties with a garage priced at $800,000 and located in the city’s north end. While a plethora of two-storey properties are currently available for sale, there are five that match those criteria. Exacerbating the high demand and short supply of bungalow product is the choice of most existing homeowners to stay put, for now.

Inventory levels overall have risen in the city, with a solid selection of housing product available at all price points. Average price in Calgary topped $600,000 for the first time in 2024 — an increase of 344.7 per cent over 1994 levels and a compounded annual growth rate of 5.1 per cent. While affordability remains strong in the province, there has been considerable downward pressure on demand for condominiums, with buyers opting for freehold properties without monthly fees. Some buyers are moving to smaller communities outside of Calgary, where their dollars stretch further.

According to TD Economics’ Provincial Economic Forecast, Alberta is expected to fare better than most regions in 2025, thanks in large part to the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion. Although concerns exist regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs, oil and gas have been spared somewhat, with an estimated 85 per cent of oil and gas exports flowing tariff-free to the US. Oil prices, however, continue to put a damper on the market, with a sub-US $70 oil price, while investment spending in the province has also slowed as well.

Looking ahead, Calgary’s housing market is poised to navigate the evolving economic landscape with resilience. While challenges such as U.S. tariffs, job concerns and fluctuating oil prices persist, the city’s diverse housing inventory and strong demand in specific segments provide a solid foundation for continued growth. The positive economic outlook for Alberta, bolstered by the Transmountain Pipeline Expansion, further supports the market’s potential. As Calgary adapts to these conditions, it remains well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and maintain its appeal to both local and out-of-province buyers.

Saskatoon

Strong population growth has contributed to accelerating demand for housing in Saskatoon in recent years, driving the value of residential properties to new highs, and surpassing previous peak levels reached in 2015. Between 1994 and 2024, the average home price in the city rose nearly 378 per cent, with an annual compounded growth rate of 5.35 per cent, making it one of Canada’s top-performing housing markets.

Despite solid growth, affordability remains a key strength drawing local purchasers and those from further afield, as the average home price hovered just under $390,000 at year-end 2024. As a result, the city’s population grew from 220,002 in 1994 to almost 370,000 in 2024, according to Statistics Canada, buoyed by immigration and in-migration from smaller Saskatchewan towns and neighbouring provinces. While the rapid expansion served to fill job vacancies, it has also placed greater strain on the city’s housing supply. In response, the municipality has rezoned several areas to support higher-density development both within the city and on its outskirts. The willingness and ability to actively prioritize new housing construction and fast-track zoning and approvals has been an important differentiator that sets Saskatoon apart from other major markets. This, combined with an abundance of surrounding land, has the city well-positioned for further growth.

While skilled trade shortages persist, homebuilders are working to meet demand. Construction includes single-family homes in the suburbs and lower density rental housing such as quadplexes in urban areas. Local buyers are most active in established core neighbourhoods, while investors increasingly target older homes on 50ft. lots for demolition and lot splitting to create two, 25ft. wide single-family properties, often with rental suites to help offset mortgage costs. New builds with secondary suites are popular and increasingly common, as builders adapt to the evolving needs of younger buyers.

Despite some economic softening amid recent headwinds — including U.S. tariffs on agricultural products such as canola — housing demand remains resilient. First-time buyers, downsizing retirees and empty nesters are all active in the market, often competing for the same properties and increasingly driving multiple-offer situations. For some, challenges and obstacles to home ownership — from high interest rates, stress tests, saving for a down payment or helping grown kids gain a foothold — are realities that can prevent or delay the ability to make a move. In many cases, downsizing parents and grandparents continue to step in to bridge the gaps through gifts or transfer of wealth.

Saskatoon’s housing market has demonstrated remarkable stability over the past 30 years, with a few notable exceptions. The 2007 commodity boom and Covid run-up of the early 2020s, fueled by both immigration and interprovincial migration, marked periods of rapid growth. From 2004 to 2014, home prices rose by nearly 10 per cent annually before a sharp correction in 2015-2016, as the energy crisis significantly impacted the local and provincial economies.

Looking ahead, a strong economic outlook — particularly in the province’s mining and technology sectors — is expected to support continued home-buying activity. Saskatchewan recorded the second-highest GDP growth in the country at 3.4 per cent from 2023 to 2024, significantly outpacing the national average of 1.6 per cent. The province’s latest budget provides some new support for individuals and households, introducing tax relief measures including higher personal exemptions and a $500 supplement for seniors. Although growth may slow in 2025, limited exposure to US tariffs positions the province to outperform many other regions — a factor that will further reinforce the city’s desirability and set the stage for continued growth amidst housing market resilience.

Winnipeg

Stability continues to underpin Winnipeg’s residential housing market, with demand strongest in the $500,000 to $600,000 range. First-time and move-up buyers are particularly active, gravitating toward 1980s- to 1990s-era detached and semi-detached homes with garages. Activity at higher price points over $600,000 tends to taper, as financing becomes a bigger part of the picture.

The housing market is balanced at present but is leaning toward seller’s market conditions at lower price points. Average price continues to edge up, despite market uncertainties. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, but many of today’s buyers are coming out of rentals and apartments. For the right property, most buyers are willing to invest some sweat equity to realize home ownership.

Winnipeg was one of the top markets in the country between 2004 and 2014, experiencing a compounded annual growth rate of 8.41 per cent throughout the decade, despite the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Momentum accelerated in 2006 when the federal government relaxed lending criteria, with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) insuring 40-year amortization periods and zero-down mortgages. Although these measures were reversed in 2008, activity was re-ignited when overnight bank rates dropped to 0.25 per cent in 2009 and remained relatively low until 2011, fueling another wave of growth.

With home prices hovering at almost $400,000 (average price across all residential types), affordability is a growing issue, as pent-up demand builds at virtually all price points. Multiple offers are occurring on homes in the sweet spot of $400,000 to $500,000 — especially those in good locations and that show well. Some of the newer homes available for sale now allow for rental suites, while others extend to mixed-use, allowing for businesses to legally operate out of a principal residence, thereby helping to offset mortgage costs. Parental assistance is also occurring as post-pandemic buyers pool resources to get the home that they want.

The downsizing trend continues as empty nesters and retirees move to simplify their lives in Winnipeg, with many looking at properties priced around $500,000. Given tighter inventory levels at this price point and softer sales at the top end of the market, many end up holding onto their properties longer than expected.

According to TD Economics Provincial Economic Forecast release in June 2025, Manitoba’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2025, repeating last year’s modest pace. Growth will be supported by a rebound in the utilities sector and strong non-residential construction, including two major hospital projects. The provincial government is expected to heavily influence GDP growth through higher infrastructure outlays in the year ahead. It has also pledged tariff supports amounting to almost one per cent of GDP to offset US tariffs on pharmaceutical products — Manitoba’s largest southbound export.

Population in the Winnipeg CMA has grown almost 40 per cent over 30 years, with the number of residents now approaching one million. Growth through immigration and in-migration is expected to bolster home-buying activity in the years ahead. While affordability is an issue locally, housing is more affordable in Winnipeg than most other major cities in Canada.

Greater Toronto Area

Home-buying activity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has ramped up in the second half of 2025, with the market expected to outperform the first half by year-end. The return-to-office mandate implemented by at least four of the big banks, as well as Rogers Communications, Canaccord Genuity and the Ontario Government sent both buyers and renters scrambling. August 1st proved to be the busiest rental day experienced in the last two years, with units snapped up in days and multiple offers reported.

The mandate proved instrumental in the upswing — a signal to investors who are finally gaining confidence. Units that have lingered on the market for months have started to move, absorption levels are increasing, and investors are slowly returning to take advantage of low downtown condominium values against a backdrop of growing demand.

The freehold market has been slower to mend, although lower price points in and around $1 million continue to experience healthy activity. A tentative recovery is underway, with all eyes on 2026.

Since 1994, average price in the GTA has risen 436.2 per cent — a 5.76-per-cent compounded annual rate of return over the 30-year period, marking the second-best performing city in the country. While prices have climbed, income for economic families with and without children rose just 34.6 per cent during the same period, rising from $97,300 in 1994 to $131,000 in 2023, according to Statistics Canada.

Confidence remains soft in GTA households, with the cost of living, economic uncertainty and concerns over future employment weighing on the overall market. To bolster consumer confidence, buyers and sellers would need to see the cost of living come down, coupled with further interest rate relief. The Bank of Canada continues to be hawkish on rate cuts, but there’s only so much that the market can bear.

Ontario is bleeding investment dollars, with buyers and investors now seeking opportunities in other provinces and countries. To stem the outflow, Ontario government agencies should be incentivizing younger first-time homebuyers with extended amortization periods and higher withdrawal limits on home-buying plans such as TFSAs and RRSPs, while lower development costs should be extended to builders who are creating more affordable housing and addressing the “missing middle.”

Population in the Toronto CMA topped 7.1 million in 2024, up almost 70 per cent from the 4.226 million reported in 1994. Between 2022 and 2024, the CMA welcomed more than 500,000 new residents. Yet, housing continues to lag population growth. A Scotia Global Economics Housing Note from May 2021 found Canada has the lowest number of housing units per 1,000 residents of any G7 country. The report stated the number of housing units per 1,000 Canadians has been falling since 2016, owing to the sharp rise in population growth. An extra 100,000 dwellings would have been required to keep the ratio of housing units to population stable since 2016 — leaving us still well below the G7 average. The current situation in Canadian housing markets primarily reflects a chronic insufficiency of home supply that is temporarily exacerbated by pandemic-related impacts linked to record-low mortgage rates and a shift in preferences for housing by type and geography. Past and proposed macroprudential measures are ineffective band-aids that do not address the underlying insufficiency of supply and are unlikely to ensure the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market.

Despite some progress made in terms of condominium and rental construction in recent years, the country continues to fall short of needed units. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest Housing Shortages in Canada Report, which updated projected supply gaps using an enhanced model, it is estimated that housing starts must double from current levels to 430,000 to 480,000 per year to restore affordability over the next decade. Reality on the ground is that new supply is declining, and the construction industry is laying off thousands of workers. Home ownership, not surprisingly, continues to trend downward in the Toronto CMA after peaking at 68.3 in 2011. In 2021, 65.1 per cent of residents owned a home.

The Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market is experiencing a dynamic shift, driven by a combination of return-to-office mandates, investor confidence and population growth. The GTA condominium market has yet to show signs of recovery, while the freehold segment continues to see stronger activity. Overall conditions remain fragile with affordability challenges and supply constraints weighing on the market. The historical data underscores the significant rise in property values, compared with modest wage growth, highlighting the affordability challenge. To bolster market confidence, strategic interventions by government agencies are essential, including incentivizing first-time buyers and reducing development costs. As the region continues to grapple with housing supply shortages, the focus must remain on creating sustainable solutions to meet the growing demand. The road ahead is challenging, but with concerted efforts, the GTA can navigate these complexities and achieve a healthy balanced real estate market.

Ottawa

As the nation’s capital, Ottawa has enjoyed a stable residential real estate market for much of the 30-year period, with consistent growth in values reported through 1996 to 2022, dipping slightly in 2023 but bouncing back in 2024. Recent homebuying activity remains steady but cautious, given overall market uncertainties and an overnight rate fixed at 2.75 since early 2025.

Affordability continues to differentiate the Ottawa market, with a good selection of homes available at most price points. While average price hovered at close to $691,000 at year-end 2024, demand continues to be strongest for freehold product valued at lower price points, ranging from $500,000 to $700,000. Townhomes and smaller single-detached homes tend to move quickly, but a lack of supply at this price point continues to frustrate buyers, especially as a healthy fall market is shaping up. Overpriced properties at all price ranges continue to linger.

Despite lower prices, first time buyers continue to be challenged in terms of accumulating a down-payment and “passing” the stress test, especially given the burden of student debt and rental payments. Income has not kept pace with the cost of living, making it increasingly difficult for younger buyers to enter the housing market. Home-ownership rates sat at 65.4 per cent in Ottawa in 2021, according to Statistics Canada Census Data, a decline of just over three percentage point from 2011’s peak of 68.6 per cent.

Immigration and in-migration, especially in recent years, has contributed to Ottawa’s growth, with the city’s population up 69.3 per cent since 1994, bringing the total number of residents to almost 1.3 million. With an abundance of un-serviced land available in Ottawa and surrounding areas, increasing the supply of homes is a viable answer to the rise in new residents. Targeted development of freehold housing would help to keep younger buyers in the area and reduce the incentive to relocate to more affordable markets. Policy levers that previously bolstered affordability — such as federal policy supporting CMHC’s insured 40-year amortizations and zero-down mortgage (2006-2008) — merit renewed consideration, along with measures such as tax credits for first-time buyers, higher RRSP withdrawal limits and a recalibration of the stress test.

The federal government’s return-to-office mandate should serve to reinvigorate Ottawa’s ailing downtown core. However, concerns over federal austerity policies and the potential for future layoffs have given buyers pause at present. Even so, ongoing population growth through immigration, generational wealth transfer, and Ottawa’s track record of measured, sustainable growth provides important offsets to uncertainty, reinforcing the market’s long-term resilience.

Halifax Regional Municipality

Unprecedented population growth throughout Covid brought the Halifax Regional Municipality to new heights — rising almost 12 per cent between 2020 and 2024 — creating one of the most robust residential housing markets in the history of the city. Few homes were listed for sale — at one point dropping to just 300 active listings. More than 56,000 new residents settled in the coastal area through immigration and in-migration, fueling demand for housing in almost every pocket in the city. While the influx has subsided in recent years, market conditions continue to favour the seller, especially at the coveted $600,000 price point where inventory levels are especially tight.

The average price of a home in Halifax rose to almost $580,000 in 2024. Between 2014 and 2024, values climbed close to 110 per cent, representing an impressive average annual compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 7.69 per cent. Halifax leads the country in terms of percentage increase in average price over the 30-year period, rising 460 per cent between 1994 and 2024, realizing a CAGR at 5.91 per cent.

Inventory levels remain traditionally low, with 1,200 homes currently listed for sale, but the obstacles to home ownership remain price, transfer taxes and interest rates. Although Halifax remains one of the most affordable markets in the country, options are limited and affordability is still top of mind for young buyers, given rising carrying costs and wage growth that continues to lag price appreciation. After peaking in 2006 at 64 per cent, home ownership rates the Halifax CMA dropped to 58.6 per cent in 2021 — one of the lowest home ownership rates in the country. A blunt instrument is necessary to impact change, be it federal grants and programs designed to assist in home ownership or other levers such as tax credits at purchase. Federal and provincial measures designed to help first-time buyers may also include the elimination or reduction of the 1.5 per cent municipal transfer tax; down payment assistance programs financed or subsidized and insured by government; and finally, a stress test that qualifies buyers at current interest rates.

Smaller detached homes and apartment-style condominiums remain most sought-after, while demand for properties priced at higher price points has flattened due to declining affordability and high interest rates. First-time buyers and downsizing baby boomers are now seeking similar product — be it smaller single-detached homes or apartment-style condominiums — which has contributed to upward pressure on entry-level housing. Younger buyers are giving greater consideration to the condominium lifestyle since the gap between semi-detached homes and condominiums has increased. Today’s younger buyers are savvy, entrepreneurial, and creative in the quest to realize home ownership. Unlike previous generations, they’re looking for properties with basement apartments or renting out rooms to offset their mortgage.

Market confidence has stabilized following recent federal, provincial and municipal elections, with concerns over trade barriers, interest rates and broader uncertainty beginning to ease. Halifax Regional Municipality continues to stand out for its stability. Unlike larger centres, it has experienced minimal volatility or steep peaks and valleys. Rental rates have begun to ease while vacancy rates edge higher. However, on the resale side, additional housing supply is needed to restore balance and temper price escalation.

Halifax has firmly come into its own, emerging as one of Canada’s most dynamic housing markets characterized by growth and transformation. An expanding population, relative affordability and a reputation as a vibrant coastal city continue to draw newcomers and investors alike. Sustaining this momentum will require strategic action to expand supply and improve affordability, ensuring Halifax Regional Municipality remains a balanced, competitive and thriving community well into the future. For now, buyers continue to maintain an edge, particularly in the mid-range price points.

St. John’s (Newfoundland and Labrador)

Homebuying activity in St. John’s and the surrounding areas continued to fire on all cylinders this year, despite inventory levels that fell well short of demand. While conditions have moderated in recent weeks as the outcome of fall provincial and municipal elections weigh on market activity, once elections have taken place, the market is expected to rattle and hum once again.

The surge in demand — set in motion during the pandemic and reinforced by capital works projects and population growth — continues to drive both resale and rental activity to unprecedented levels. As a result, average price and rental rates have accelerated, creating affordability issues in a city and province that has typically boasted the highest home ownership rates in the country. In 2021, 69.4 per cent of those in the St. John’s CMA were homeowners, according to Statistics Canada, well ahead of the Canadian average of 66 per cent during the same period. While values are attractive compared to other major markets, affordability is a growing concern. Housing values have increased by 244 per cent over the 30-year span, with an average compounded annual rate of return of 4.21 per cent. As of now, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador stands at approximately 545,464, marking the highest figure since January 1998. Immigration and in-migration from more rural areas is changing the landscape, breathing new life into the region.

With a growing buyer pool and given the current strength of the housing market, younger buyers are becoming increasingly frustrated. Limited inventory, stagnant interest rates, and rapidly rising values are challenging enough, but factor in the stress test qualification and home ownership becomes elusive. Buyers may lose out on seven to eight properties before achieving home ownership.

New construction is underway to help alleviate pressure but securing trades and independent sub-contractors can often prove an exercise in futility. There have been reports of some tradespeople including framers, drywallers, plumbers, etc. ghosting new homebuilders despite having a commitment. Given the compound challenges, supply shortages are expected to persist going forward.

Capital work projects, combined with investment in the province’s natural resources, have propelled economic growth in recent years. In its June 18th Economic Forecast, the TD Bank expected Newfoundland-Labrador to record nation-leading expansion in 2025, citing oil and mineral production as the primary drivers. Resumption of oil production at White Rose is now officially underway, the first time since late-2023. Rising nickel production is expected to underpin the province’s mining industry, with the Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Plant, Vale’s Voisey Bay Mine, and projects by Iron Ore Company of Canada and the Tata Steel Mineral Canada Ltd. iron ore projects. Additional projects — including Fluorspar and Kami Iron Ore Project, the Rambler Copper Gold Program, the Bay du Nord and Lower Churchill energy projects, the Nalcor Electric Generating project and offshore petroleum operations including Hibernia, Hebron, Terra Nova, White Rose and Hibernia South — underscore the province’s resource-driven growth.

These economic factors and resulting employment gains, combined with relative affordability compared to other Canadian centres, will continue to drive population growth over the next 35 years. This is likely to create momentum like that experienced between 2004 and 2014 when average housing values climbed from $130,282 to $284,172 – a 118-per-cent increase providing a compounded rate of return over the 10-year period of 8.11 per cent.

St. John’s and its surrounding areas continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth, driven by a combination of economic factors, population growth, and investment in capital projects and natural resources. Despite the challenges posed by limited inventory, rising prices and construction hurdles, the market remains robust, with demand for both sale and lease properties at unprecedented levels. While this dynamic environment presents both opportunities and challenges for buyers, sellers and investors alike, underscoring the need for strategic planning and adaptability in navigating the evolving landscape of St. John’s real estate, the momentum in the housing market is expected to persist.

About the RE/MAX Network

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